The Cyclical Evolution and Patterns of British and German Tourism to the Balearic Islands

Abstract

[eng] The aim of this study is to examine cyclical evolution and patterns of tourist arrivals to Balearic Islands from two main destinations: the UK and Germany. This paper has examined the data of British and German tourists for the past 36 years (1980-2016) to measure tourism demand cycle. To effectively evaluate Tourism demand cycle, it has been divided into two components: monthly growth of tourist and tourist fundamental trend. Time-series method has been employed to measure the growth and turning points in the tourism demand cycle. The results showed an upsurge in the overall tourist arrivals from both UK and Germany; however, considerable fluctuation can be witnessed in the case of the UK, while the tourists flow from Germany increased smoothly. The results also highlighted that in 2016, tourism from Germany and the UK was at its peak with 31.3 % increase in German arrivals and up to 83.1 from the UK. The results presented in this study can be quite valuable for the different stakeholders in the Balearic tourism sector such as hotel and resort owners, tourists, travel agents, transportation companies and government policy and decision makers.