Application of the method of parallel trajectories on modeling the dynamics of COVID-19 third wave

Abstract

[eng] In this paper, we present a new method for successfully simulating the dynamics of COVID-19, experimentally focusing on the third wave. This method, namely, the Method of Parallel Trajectories (MPT), is based on the recently introduced self-organized diffusion model. According to this method, accurate simulation of the dynamics of the COVID-19 infected population evolution is accomplished by considering not the total data for the infected population, but successive segments of it. By changing the initial conditions with which each segment of the simulation is produced, we achieve close and detailed monitoring of the evolution of the pandemic, providing a tool for evaluating the overall situation and the fine-tuning of the restrictive measures. Finally, the application of the proposed MPT on simulating the pandemic's third wave dynamics in Greece and Italy is presented, verifying the method's effectiveness. Next to studying the biological mechanisms responsible for the SARS-CoV-2 development and propagation, it is very important to study and understand the dynamics governing the diffusion of COVID-19 disease. Toward this, in previous works,1,2 we have introduced a self-organizing diffusion model successfully simulating COVID-19 dynamics,1 while we have shown the existence of a critical point within the proposed simulation model,2 which is further expected to appear in the pandemic dynamics. In fact, this critical situation is a resonance,3 resulting in maximizing the pandemic's duration, as well as infection levels within the population set considered. With the present work, we introduce a new method, the Method of Parallel Trajectories (MPT). MPT allows for simulating an epidemic in segments, with an average duration of 20 days (for each segment). This allows for (a) closely monitoring an epidemic's evolution, further calculating how close to the resonance situation the system stands; (b) evaluating the restrictive measures imposed on a population set, further contributing to their optimization; and (c) having the ability of a short-horizon (a few days) forecasting (shortness being the result of segment overlapping for some days). Finally, it should be mentioned that the proposed hereby Method of Parallel Trajectories (MPT) is based on theories and approaches coming from domains of cosmology and quantum mechanics that consider the parallel-path approach, and it is introduced and applied for the first time in such dynamical systems (epidemics).