Global warming significantly increases the risk of Pierce’s disease epidemics in European vineyards

Abstract

<p>Pierce’s disease (PD) is a vector‑borne disease caused by the bacteria Xylella fastidiosa, which</p><p>affects grapevines in the Americas. Currently, vineyards in continental Europe, the world’s largest</p><p>producer of quality wine, have not yet been affected by PD. However, climate change may alter this</p><p>situation. Here we incorporate the latest regional climate change projections into a climate‑driven</p><p>epidemiological model to assess the risk of PD epidemics in Europe for different levels of global</p><p>warming. We found a significant increase in risk above + 2 ◦C in the main wine‑producing regions of</p><p>France, Italy and Portugal, in addition to a critical tipping point above + 3 ◦C for the possible spread</p><p>of PD beyond the Mediterranean. The model identifies decreasing risk trends in Spain, as well as</p><p>contrasting patterns across the continent with different velocities of risk change and epidemic growth</p><p>rates. Although there is some uncertainty in model projections over time, spatial patterns of risk are</p><p>consistent across different climate models. Our study provides a comprehensive analysis of the future</p><p>of PD at multiple spatial scales (country, Protected Designation of Origin and vineyard), revealing</p><p>where, why and when PD could become a new threat to the European wine industry.</p>