A quantile-quantile adjustment of the EURO-CORDEX projections for temperatures and precipitation

Abstract

[eng] Projections of climate change impacts over Europe are derived using a new quantile–quantile adjustment method. E-OBS high-resolution gridded data sets of daily observed precipitation and 2-m surface minimum and maximum temperatures have been used as the current climate baseline. For projections, the same meteorological variables have been obtained from a set of regional climate models (RCMs) integrated in the EURO-CORDEX project, and by considering the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future emissions scenarios. To enhance the reliability of RCM data at local scale, new developments of a previous quantile–quantile adjustment have been applied to the simulated regional scenarios. This method focuses not only on the bulk spectrum of the cumulative distribution functions but also on its tails. Results show an overall improvement in reproducing the present climate baseline when using calibrated series instead of raw RCM outputs. Next, we have used these locally adjusted series to quantify the climate change signal through a number of annual and seasonal indicators. A significant increase of the minimum and maximum temperatures in all seasons is projected over Europe, being more marked in the Mediterranean for summer and autumn. Prospects on future seasonal and annual changes in precipitation are more diverse, showing an overall decrease in southern Europe and the Mediterranean, while precipitation is expected to increase towards the north of the continent. With these sources of information at hand, including and accounting for the identification of the most vulnerable geographical areas, policy makers and stakeholders can respond more effectively to the future challenges imposed by climate change.