Seismonomics: Listening to the Heartbeat of the Economy

Abstract

[eng] Seismometers continuously record a wide range of ground vibrations that are not necessarily related to earthquake activity, but are rather caused by human activity such as industrial processes and traffic. We isolate the human-made imprints from a huge data set made of nearly 20 years of continuously recorded seismic data in Beijing, China, and construct a new daily indicator, the Vibration Index, to forecast regional industrial production. We find that our indicator closely tracks business cycle fluctuations particularly during economic crises. Our results provide policymakers with a new tool to monitor the economy at a highly granular level.